- Money Line Calculator (Implied Probability) Money Line: Implied Probability: RESET. The following chart shows how likely a team is to win based off the odds. This is helpful in handicapping because you can see just what percentage of your wagers you need to win at each given money line in order to profit.
- Implied probability explained Covers’ odds converter allows you to enter any of these odds variations and get them instantly translated into your preferred display, while also calculating the.
All games on the menus of legal sportsbooks feature lines that give the house an edge. No sports bet works out as an even money proposition on both sides.
The house edge allows the sportsbook to make money in the long term, no matter what actually happens on the field. Some games offer odds that favor the house more than others.
The Edge Table calculates the house edge for upcoming games across the top legal online sportsbooks. The Edge Table displays which sportsbook takes the lowest edge on each game, allowing bettors to evaluate which book presents the most player-friendly odds.
Implied probability distributions 22 Mar 1999 The prices of forwards, futures and options contain a great deal of information about what the market thinks or fears about future market conditions. Implied odds are a term that most poker players are aware of, but very few truly know what they are. You will hear players cite implied odds as their reasoning for making questionable plays, but ask them what they are, and they slink back in their chair.
Sports Betting Edge Table
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Implied Probability Calculator
Calculating The House Edge
You can calculate the house edge on a particular game by converting the odds on both sides into implied probability. The favored team’s implied win probability percentage minus the underdog’s implied probability yields the edge built into a bet by the sportsbook.
Implied Probability Calculation For Negative American Odds
Suppose the line on an upcoming Kansas City Chiefs game looks like this:
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -323 |
| Miami Dolphins | +275 |
To calculate the implied probability of the Chiefs winning, you have to put the payout odds into the implied probability for negative American odds formula:
Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds))/(-1(Odds) + 100)
Putting the Chiefs’ (-323) moneyline odds into this equation yields the following result:
(-1*(-323))/(-1(-323)+100)
That equation solves to 323/423, which converts to 76.36% (rounded up). The (-323) odds on Kansas City converts to a 76.36% implied probability of winning.
Implied Probability Calculation For Positive American Odds
To calculate the Dolphins implied probability at (+275) moneyline odds, take a look at the implied probability for positive American odds formula:
Implied Probability = 100/(Odds + 100)
Putting Miami’s (+275) line into this formula yields the following:
100/(275 + 100)
That equation converts to 26.67% as the implied winning probability for the Dolphins.
Using Implied Probabilities To Determine The House Edge
Now that you’ve converted the moneyline odds on both sides of the bet into implied probabilities, you can calculate the house’s built-in edge on the Kansas City-Miami NFL game.
To accomplish this, we add both implied probabilities together and subtract (1). Before we put the implied probabilities into the equation, we convert the percentages to decimal format:
(0.7636 + 0.2667) – 1
Which converts to:
1.303 – 1 = 0.303
The house edge on the Chiefs-Dolphins game in 0.303, or 3.03%.
Implied Probability Betting
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