The college football playoff is typically made up of two semi-final matchups with the winner of each semifinal advancing to The College Football Playoff National Championship game. The 2020 Playoff Semifinals are scheduled for Friday, January 1, with the Rose Bowl Game and Sugar Bowl. Saturday 10/17 – Arkansas +1.5 over Ole Miss WIN. Friday 10/16 – BYU vs Houston Free Pick WIN. Thursday 10/15 – Arkansas State -3.5 over Georgia State WIN. Wednesday 10/14 – Coastal Carolina +7.5 over Louisiana-Lafayette WIN. Saturday 10/10 – Tennessee vs Georgia Free Pick WIN Saturday 10/10 – Miami FL +14 over Clemson LOSS. Look for fixtures where the top team in a division faces off against a team in the lower reaches, especially if the top side is away from home as that can add good value to the bet. Look also for teams who are in form and playing well, against teams that are currently out of form and struggling to pick up results.
Knowing how to pick winners of NFL games is still a bit of a lottery but with computers storing information on each team and their win-lost records in snow, rain, night games, day games, domes, on grass and turf we have more information on which to base a gambling decision. We can predict outcomes with more confidence. The Science of Picking Football Winners Purpose: Many have developed systems for picking the winning team in a football game. For some, its a matter of accounting for weather conditions, average weight of the offensive line, yards let up per game, average first downs and millions of other stat tidbits.
In a previous article we looked at a simple strategy to help you win big on accumulator bets. In this article, we are going to expand on the issues raised in that article and in particular, look at how you can pick the teams and bets more successfully for your acca.
Making educated, informed and well-researched selections gives your acca the best chance of success. Too many punters mess up the basics and let the bookies stuff them up week in week out.
*It is best to imagine each of the steps below as a filter, which helps you eliminate the riskier or more difficult to predict bets from your coupon, thus leaving you with the bets which not only match your criteria, but offer you the best chance of success.
Football Accumulator Strategy – Picking Teams
Step One: Narrow Your Selections Down
Every week you have a huge number of fixtures to choose from and while you would no doubt love to spend all your weekend analysing every one – that simply is not possible.
Therefore, what you need are some easy to follow filters to narrow the selections down into a manageable group.
Look for fixtures where the top team in a division faces off against a team in the lower reaches, especially if the top side is away from home as that can add good value to the bet. Look also for teams who are in form and playing well, against teams that are currently out of form and struggling to pick up results.
The BBC website football tables are great for this as form is listed alongside league position.
Ideally you should be looking for selections that are around the even money mark, although there are times when you can justify making a selection when the price on offer looks great value.
A great example of this was the recent Manchester United v Manchester City clash, where United were around 2/1 to win the game, despite being at home and an in form team against an out of form Manchester City.
This first filter will drastically cut down your potential selections and allow you to then move onto the next stage of the process.
Step Two: Analyse the Price of Each Selection
Look at your selections and look at the price attributed to each. What you need to do now is make a judgement call about that price in terms of how much value it is offering you. A great way to do this is by using a value calculator.
Of course, you can’t use an ‘exact’ figure for the percentage chance of your selection winning, but you can use data to make an educated guess as to the percentage likelihood of the team getting the result you need.
Enter this figure into the box and then enter the odds and then analyse the result. Any positive figure indicates that this is a good bet for you to place, whereas a negative figure indicates that this selection may be more of a risk.
Step Three: Check For ‘Hidden’ Factors
After the first two filters, you are now ready to fine tune the remaining selections and this is where you need to dig a little deeper. Check the team news for the teams you are considering.
Are key players missing through injury or suspension? Some teams rely heavily on key players (look at Liverpool’s form since Luis Suarez departed) and their absence can severely impact a teams chances of getting the result you need.
Two great sites for match previews are Sky Sports and the BBC fixture pages which link to all their previews.
Other ‘hidden factors’ to consider include checking a team’s home and away form, how many goals they are scoring (at home and away), and how many they are generally conceding. Look at the disciplinary record of the team and who the referee will be to see if there is a likelihood of players being red carded.
There’s no hard or fast rule for the hidden factor check, it is very much down to the information you feel will be key towards informing your final decision about which bets to add to your selection. Don’t be afraid to re-run the calculation above based on any hidden information you may find out as this information can influence how much chance you think a team will have of getting the result you need.
By the end of this process however you should have narrowed down your selections to those that you feel will combine to make the strongest possible acca bet.
How To Pick Winners
Five Things You MUST Avoid When Picking Your Acca
- Backing your own team – As fans we can often be too critical or too positive about our own team and this can easily cloud judgement (even when you think it isn’t it is).
- Long odds (3/1 or greater) – Long odds selections are long odds for a good reason. If you like the look of a long odds bet then place it as a single instead.
- Injuries & suspensions – Some teams rely heavily on key players more than others and their absence can severely impact their chances. Dont be lazy, check this before you bet.
- Poor form – Confidence is key in football and a team on a losing streak is unlikely to buck that trend, especially against decent opposition.
- Teams that struggle to score goals – If you don’t score goals you can’t win games and teams that struggle to find the net will crush your acca week in week out.
Making a successful acca bet is about combining all of the above and then using your judgement to make the right selections.
It is not an exact science but over time and as the season progresses, you will find you get far better at being able to select the right teams each week and as a result, your hit ratio will improve markedly, leading to more successful, winning acca bets.
Related Reading
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– William Hill 5-Fold Acca Insurance
College Football Winners Today
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