Fantasy Baseball 2018 Sleepers - Starting Pitchers. February 22, 2018, 10:25 AM. One person’s fantasy sleeper is another’s no-doubt way-too-obvious breakout player, requiring. Here are five hitters worth drafting as a sleeper. The 2018 fantasy baseball season is right around the corner. Pitchers and catchers report in just three weeks. Spring Training will begin shortly.

• Sleeper Mlb Fantasy Picks
• Best Mlb Sleepers
• Best Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
• Fantasy Sleepers 2018 Mlb Draft
• Mlb Fantasy Sleeper Pitchers
• Fantasy Sleepers 2018 Mlb Rankings

The draft is the most exciting date on the fantasy baseball calendar, as the decisions you make during the draft set the table for your season.

Are you prepared to find the hidden gems that will set your team apart? Have you scouted the next superstar waiting to rise to the top of the Player Rater? Can you navigate the player pool and avoid the busts that will leave you with regrets all season long?

Below, our experts predict the players they consider to be sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2018 season. Here's a quick guide to what we mean by these categories ...

Sleeper: A player set to exceed the value implied by his average draft position. Each analyst has provided an early-round sleeper, a midround sleeper and a sleeper you can find at the end of your drafts.

Breakout: A player poised to enter the upper echelon of the fantasy game via a big step forward, reaching a new level of play for the first time in his career. Our analysts have picked an early breakout player who could deliver first-round value, a midround sleeper who could return value of a top-50 player and a rookie who could jump straight to fantasy stardom.

Bust: A player who will disappoint relative to his average draft position. Our experts have picked players set to disappoint as expected first-round selections, disappointments in the early to middle rounds and rookies who won't live up to expectations.

Yoan Moncada: Moncada boasts power, speed, plate discipline, a middle-infield starting spot and a place near the top of a potentially interesting lineup, all at age 22. OK, he could have been better last year, but he was still a rookie. This is a 20-homer, 30-steal profile, at least, and even if he hits only .260 or so thanks to the strikeouts, that makes him a top-100 player with the potential for considerably more, considering he can contribute in every offensive category. The breakout is still coming! -- Eric Karabell

Manuel Margot: Margot always profiled as a leadoff option with stolen base potential, and then in his rookie season, he swatted 13 home runs in 126 games as well. The Padres should score many more runs than they did in 2017, and Margot at the top is key as a potential five-category option. Margot was not supposed to hit for much power, but the underlying figures show that his rookie power was legit. Margot is certainly capable of more than 30 stolen bases, with expected gains in batting average and runs pending as well. -- Eric Karabell

Bryce Harper: Harper has achieved historic numbers, with 150 home runs before turning 25, but he is a risk in Round 1. Durability is a problem, but the numbers are inconsistent as well. Sure, Harper could hit 50 home runs ... but he has topped 30 once in six seasons. He could win a batting title ... but he has hit .275 twice. Finally, Harper attempted all of six stolen bases last season. It would not be surprising if Harper matches his 2015 MVP campaign and tops Mike Trout in value ... but it is fair to point out that Harper has reached expectations in only one of his six seasons for fantasy. -- Eric Karabell

Byron Buxton: Some might claim he already 'broke out,' as Buxton's .300/.347/.546 slash rates, 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 57 games played after the All-Star break made him a top-40 performer in terms of fantasy baseball earnings, but to this point of his career, including that stretch, he has been a wildly unpredictable performer. One of the reasons I believe in Buxton's strong finish -- and note, I expect him to regress to closer to a .260 batting average but with similar power/speed -- is that a significant tweak to his batting stance fueled much of it. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Willie Calhoun: There's always a rookie who comes from nowhere to put forth near-Rookie of the Year numbers, and the ones I typically draft possess high floors, likely to translate smoothly to the big leagues, and are rarely noticed. Calhoun fits the bill: He's a virtual lock to start -- or at least be on the strong side of a platoon -- in left field for the Texas Rangers, and he was one of three players in pro ball last season with at least 30 home runs and an 85 percent contact rate (along with Francisco Lindor and Joey Votto). -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Alex Reyes: While I like Reyes' skill set a lot -- he'll be someone I acquire in dynasty formats -- his 2018 role is uncertain, as it's his first year following Tommy John surgery, and he has never exceeded 111 1/3 innings in a single pro year. Coming off a year in which the multi-inning reliever was back in vogue, especially during the postseason, Reyes makes a heckuva lot of sense to the St. Louis Cardinals in a Chris Devenski-esque role as he works his way back. That, unfortunately, is a role of limited fantasy appeal. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Matt Duffy: Here's a guy who finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2015 behind Kris Bryant. In 2016, he was traded to the Rays for the stretch drive but almost immediately got hurt and then had to sit out all of last season due to surgery. All signs point to Duffy being 100 percent healthy headed into 2018, and Tampa Bay has doubled-down on the third baseman, having traded Evan Longoria to the Giants. If everything clicks, we could have 20-20 production from a guy who might not even show up on some fantasy draft lists due to the goose egg in stats he had in 2017. That's not too shabby. -- AJ Mass

Luis Castillo: In his final five starts of the 2017 season, Castillo had a 1.86 ERA, a .158 BAA and a 12.1 K/9. He has a fastball that averages 97.5 mph and clearly was able to adjust to the majors after his leap from Double-A in June after a rocky start (4.05 ERA, .243 BAA in his first seven starts of the season). Sure, he could flame out like far too many young arms before him. However, it's also not unrealistic that he'll finish the season in the top five in strikeouts, with an ERA around 3.00 and at least a dozen wins under his belt. I'd call that a breakout. -- AJ Mass

Tyler Chatwood: We always upgrade hitters in a big way when they go to Colorado, so why do we not treat pitchers leaving the thin air with similar levels of excitement? Over the past two seasons, Chatwood's road ERA is lower than that of Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. Heard of those guys? I'm not saying he is on that level, but for those of you who draft an ace to lead your staff and then wait on pitching ... Chatwood should be on your radar. -- Kyle Soppe

Sleeper Mlb Fantasy Picks

Elvis Andrus: None of his production from last season is going to help you this year, so be careful about how high you draft him. Andrus' stock skyrocketed last season thanks in large part to 20 homers ... or, you know, three more than he hit in the previous three seasons combined. He has been successful on less than 71 percent of his stolen base attempts the past four seasons, so I worry that both his ceiling and his floor aren't as high as most seem to be assuming. -- Kyle Soppe

Alex Bregman: It's easy to find power in today's fantasy baseball landscape. Everything else seems to come at a premium. As such, a player who can do 'everything else' while essentially keeping up with the power guys is incredibly valuable. Enter Bregman, who was fantastic during the second half of last season, finishing with a post-All-Star break wRC+ on par with names such as Arenado, Judge and Lindor. He's delivering on his prospect promise and should take another step forward in 2018. -- Leo Howell

Best Mlb Sleepers

The Statcast era is upon us in Fantasy Baseball and while barrels are the trendy thing to look at when assessing offensive talent, the prevention of barrels is just as important.

Sure, many names towards the top of that particular ranking are not suited for a Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep article — you don’t really need me to layout the reasons why Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, and James Paxton are good.

However, there’s no shortage of intriguing starting pitching options either. In fact, if you caught me in a mood in which I’d yearn to promote this article’s SEO value, I might dare call those options “starting pitcher sleepers.”

3 Great Late-Round Starting Pitcher Sleepers

Here are a few late-round pitchers who sat among the league-leaders in lowest Brls/PA% (barrels missed per plate appearance), and are currently going outside the Top-200 according to early NFBC ADP.

Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP 216.8)

If there’s one thing I can never get enough of in Fantasy Baseball, its post-hype prospects. Blake Snell was awful to begin the 2017 season. I would say he allowed the second-most walks per nine in the year’s first-half to truly illustrate my point, but I can’t, because he didn’t nearly last long enough in the majors to have the innings to qualify.

You’d have to shorten your parameters up to 50 innings for his 5.88 BB/9 to have any bearing. Snell was also unable to pick up a win in any of those 10 outings. Again, it was pretty bleak.

Yet, by season’s end, Snell would finish with the fifth lowest Brls/PA among the 118 starters with 350-plus batted-ball events at a pristine 2.9%.

Best Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

That figure likely coincided with a fantastic run following his recall. In 77.1 innings after the All-Star break, Snell pitched to a 3.49 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and he saw his K%-BB% rise from a putrid 4.7% in the first-half to 15.7%. The young lefty also saw his swinging-strike rate spike in September, posting a tantalizing 14.1% for the month — good for ninth-highest overall.

Blake Snell:
Avg Exit Velocity- 85.5
On LD/FB- 91
GB- 81.7
Brls/PA- 2.9

Strasbourg:
Avg Exit Velocity- 86.4
On LD/FB- 91.7
GB- 82.6
Brls/PA- 2.9 #FantasyBaseball

— Michael Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 30, 2018

Obviously, your Draft Day thought process on Snell will come down to your perception of his control issues. There’s a reason the old adage “the best pitch in baseball is strike one” stuck around long enough to become old – it’s true.

Snell saw his opponent’s wOBA skyrocket from .238 when starting a hitter with an 0-1 count, to .361 when the batter got the upper hand with a 1-0 count. That’s concerning when Snell’s 53.8% first-pitch strike rate was the fourth-lowest of any pitcher to throw 100-plus innings in 2017. Still, I don’t mind shooting for this kind of upside past pick 200. If you’re like me and feel incomplete because you can’t even consider taking another flyer on Carlos Rodon this year due to injury, do the next best thing and take a chance on Blake Snell.
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J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP 255.7)

Remember when J.A. Happ, coming off a career revitalization in Pittsburgh, signed with the Blue Jays and won 20 games in 2016? Yeah? Well, judging by his current ADP, a lot of people don’t, or at least they’re unwilling to subscribe to the theory that he might have been better last season.

Happ’s ADP entering 2017 was just inside the Top-200 in NFBC draft rooms. People were rightfully tepid to trust that another magical 20-win year was on the horizon for the then 34-year-old and, technically, they were proven correct. Injuries held Happ to just 25 starts in 2018, however, when it was all said and done, the southpaw had a career-best groundball rate, a better FIP than the prior season, and a 26.7% opponent hard-contact rate very much backed up by a minuscule barrels per plate appearance figure of 3.0%.

Really, if you ignore his first three starts, 16 innings where he pitched to a 4.50 ERA despite a 20:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his next two starts coming off the DL, a pair of games against the Reds and A’s where he was clearly not at 100 percent, you’re left with some great numbers. Those numbers were 120 innings pitched, a 3.15 ERA, a 3.32 FIP, and just 0.8 home runs surrendered per nine innings.

Fantasy Sleepers 2018 Mlb Draft

It’s understandable to look at the elder statesman of Toronto’s rotation and not see incredible upside, yet I’d warn to take Happ’s floor for granted. It appears to me that the market inefficiency this season will be the value of veteran players and Happ’s current ADP situation will definitely be one to follow.

Residing in Happ’s SP tier are flashier, younger names like Patrick Corbin, Sean Manaea, and Alex Reyes — guys that I like (I really, really like Corbin), but guys that I’d also expect to see gather some helium as we get closer to late March.

You know who’s not going to all of a sudden be racing up draft boards? Boring old J.A. Happ. So grab him at pick 250 and try to avoid cackling with glee as you do.

Happy #NationalMilkDay to everyone, especially J.A. Happ! 😂 pic.twitter.com/o6kAZT7dZV

Mlb Fantasy Sleeper Pitchers

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) January 11, 2018

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres (ADP 501.2)

This one might seem a little insane, but stick with me — I’ll bring it around. Clayton Richard is not regarded by many as a Fantasy Baseball piece. In fact, I might be the only one. It’s tough when you’re not the best “Clayton” in your own division, and it’s not even close. However, Clayton Richard has an elite trait. How many other players with ADPs outside the Top-500 can make the same boast?

Richard is a groundball savant. Among the 58 pitchers to qualify in 2017, the veteran’s 59.2% groundball rate was third-best in baseball and second-best in the National League.

Not shockingly, this skill equated to Richard being among the best in barrel suppression with opposing hitters managing a barrel on just 3.3% of plate appearances — only Zach Davies had a lower rate among SP with over 600 batted-ball events last year.

[bctt tweet=”Clayton Richard exploited the same principal that you do when taking that sweet, sweet Tinder profile selfie: it’s all about the angles.”]

The 34-year-old was one of five pitchers, among the 94 with over 400 total batters faced, to keep opponents’ average launch angle under three degrees. Considering the spectrum in which a ball can be barrelled spans from 50 degrees to eight degrees — that’s pretty important.

Richard’s groundball rate also rose when specifically focusing on his results from August forward. Over a 64-inning run, Richard pitched to a 3.52 ERA (validated by a 3.70 FIP), with a 61.9% groundball rate and 20.7% strikeout rate. The latter statistic might be the most important. Richard struck out 7.88 batters per nine in the season’s final two months — not exactly a number that would blow anyone away, but a figure that’s no longer a drain on one of your pitching categories. Plus, it’s a rate that starts making Richard look very comparable to Marcus Stroman, who is currently going at pick 125.1 on average.

Fantasy Sleepers 2018 Mlb Rankings

Whether this is more of an indictment on Stroman’s value rather than praise for Richard is a completely rational argument. Yet, the fact remains that the San Diego starter is way too undervalued heading into 2018. Richard is an innings eater in a good ballpark with a easily identifiable skill set. Even if you don’t scoop him up with your final pick, make sure to keep an eye on Clayton Richard as he inhabits the waiver wire.

Hopefully, you can use this list of late-round starting pitcher sleepers to help fortify your Fantasy Baseball lineups! Also, check out my article on “A Surprising Trio of 2018 Fantasy Baseball Bust Candidates”!

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